By Marc Chandler, Marc to Market Blog Yesterday, China announced one of the most important tax reforms of the past twenty years. It is replacing a business tax on gross revenue for non-manufacturing companies with a VAT. Manufacturing companies have been subject to a VAT approach for a few years. The reform extends it from manufacturing … Continue reading
By Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk Economic forecasting, no matter how complex the underlying model may be, is essentially about extrapolating historical trends. We showed last week how economic models completely fail to pick up on structural shifts using Japan as an example. On the other hand, if an economy doesn’t really change much, as in the case … Continue reading
By Phoenix Capital Research The world has not yet fully realized the magnitude of the slowdown in China. The “official” China growth numbers claim the Chinese economy is plowing along at 6%. I use quotations around the word “official” because Chinese economic data points are complete fiction. Indeed, back in 2007, no less than current First … Continue reading
By Charles Hugh Smith The FX market is about to blow up in the Fed’s face, and there’s nothing they can do about it. Foreign exchange (FX) is a zero-sum game: if one currency weakens, another must strengthen. Since the value of a currency is relative to other currencies, all currencies can’t weaken together: at least … Continue reading
The New York-based international ratings agency Standard & Poor’s revised China’s sovereign debt outlook down to negative, citing high levels of state and corporate indebtedness, which were mismatched with the country’s slower pace of expansion amid Beijing’s insufficient progress developing and implementing economic reforms. Standard & Poor’s has downgraded China’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative, … Continue reading
By John Ward and Peter Symonds In the lead-up to the National People’s Congress (NPC) starting on Saturday, the Chinese government has announced massive layoffs in state-owned enterprises in coal and steel. Further sackings in other basic industries are being foreshadowed in moves that will result in millions of workers losing their jobs and heightened … Continue reading
The outlook on China’s credit rating was lowered from stable to negative by Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday as they cite a weakening of fiscal metrics, a continuing fall in foreign exchange reserves, and uncertainty about implementation of reforms. According to Moody’s, the key drivers of China’s outlook revision are: The ongoing and prospective weakening of fiscal metrics, … Continue reading
By Michael Pento, Pento Portfolio Strategies A little over six months ago the owners of the Baha Mar, a $3.5 billion Bahamian resort, filed for bankruptcy. Shoddy construction from the China State Construction Company led to delays resulting from leaking plumbing, porous Chinese concrete and large cracks at critical stress points. The doomed project even … Continue reading
By Charles Hugh Smith The stark truth is nobody wants yuan any more. The U.S. dollar (USD) has gained over 35% against major currencies since 2011. China’s government has pegged its currency, the yuan (renminbi) to the USD for many years. Until mid-2005, the yuan was pegged at about 8.3 to the dollar. After numerous complaints … Continue reading
Economists James Henry and Ho-fung Hung warn that China’s debt-to-GDP ratio above 240% is an indicator that there is a major disconnect between the market and the real economy. The following is a transcript of an interview with the two economists on the Real News Network. SHARMINI PERIES, EXEC. PRODUCER, TRNN: Welcome to the Real News Network. … Continue reading