BofAML Is Positive On Indian Equity Market Over 6 To 9 Months

Thanks to weak earnings, Indian equity markets will give a flat to slightly negative return near term, but over the next 6 to 9 months, BofAML analysts remain positive. Anand Kumar and team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in their May 20, 2015 research report titled: “Year II: How to position” anticipate banks will be the key beneficiary of lending rate cuts.

Indian earnings to improve late 2015

According to the BofAML analysts, though the 1-year old Modi government has undertaken a few reforms, market expectations had been high. They point out that contrary to common market expectations, in the first year of the Modi government, defensive sectors like pharma did the best, while the high beta real estate sector and reform ideas like the oil sector underperformed.

The analysts anticipate earnings improving only in late 2015, and stock market returns being back-ended with a flat to slightly negative phase in Q2 and Q3 CY 2015.

Listing their anticipations over the next 6 to 9 months, Kumar and team anticipate lending rate cuts, 7^th Pay Commission recommendations, Fed rate hikes and big-bang reforms like GST and land bill would be in the offing.

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ETFs: INDY, INDA, EPI, SCIF