EMerging Equity
middle income trap
Is Indonesia Stuck In A Middle-Income Trap?
By Hal Hill and Haryo Aswicahyono Indonesia became a middle-income country in 2004. Indonesia’s growth rates — while superior to those of most developing countries — remain below those of East Asia’s most dynamic economies. So why hasn’t the country grown faster still and why does growth appear slower in the democratic era than that of … Continue reading
Avoiding The Middle Income Trap: What Institutions Do Asian Nations Need To Keep Growing?
By David Dollar The notion of a ‘middle-income trap’ has entered the lexicon of policymakers in emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere. Many leaders of countries that have experienced fast growth — such as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang — worry that economic growth will come off the boil as their countries reach middle-income status. Growth … Continue reading
Productivity, Not Reproductivity, The New Driver Of Chinese Growth
By Peter Drysdale Around a quarter of China’s remarkable economic growth over the past three decades or so was delivered by the dividend from its demographic structure, with a young population augmenting the workforce and lifting output in new jobs. A large proportion of the population were of working age; the proportion of the young … Continue reading
How China Can Avoid The Middle Income Trap
By Derek Scissors As China appears to be flirting with the middle income trap, the old development model is becoming increasingly unworkable. In its place, the ‘new normal’ is emerging as a valuable notion. But to work it needs increased corporate competition, integrated labour markets, sharper land rights for farmers, and much less debt accumulation. … Continue reading
Growth Slowdowns: Middle-Income Trap Vs. Regression To The Mean
Dozens of nations think they are in the ‘middle-income trap’. Lant Pritchett and Larry Summers present new evidence that this trap is actually just growth reverting to its mean. This matters since belief in the ‘trap’ can lead governments to misinterpret current challenges. For lower-middle-income nations the 21st century beckons, but there are still 19th … Continue reading
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