Asian Development Outlook 2014 Supplement: Growth Hesitates In Developing Asia

By The Asian Development Bank

The growth outlook for developing Asia remains steady, with the aggregate gross domestic product expected to grow by 6.1% in 2014, the same as in the previous year but a slight downward revision from the 6.2% forecast in ADO 2014 Update.

The regional economy is projected to expand a bit more quickly in 2015 at 6.2%, but still 0.2 percentage points short of the Update forecast. Growth projections are revised down for Central Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. They are unchanged for South Asia and revised up for the Pacific.

While domestic factors also contribute to the softening outlook, there is upside growth potential from falling oil prices.

Highlights

Some of the report’s highlights include the following:

• Growth in developing Asia lost some momentum in the second half of 2014 but is still roughly in line with projections in Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update. This Supplement sees the region expanding by 6.1% in 2014 and a slight pickup to 6.2% in 2015.

• In the People’s Republic of China, growth moderated somewhat more than expected, but the economy should still expand by 7.4% in 2014, or 0.1 percentage points off of the earlier forecast, and by 7.2% in 2015. East Asia is now forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2014 and 6.5% in 2015.

• Expectations remain high for reform-driven growth in India. This Supplement maintains earlier forecasts for growth at 5.5% in fiscal year 2014 and 6.3% in FY2015. The outlook for South Asia as a whole is unchanged at 5.4% expansion in 2014, picking up to 6.1% in 2015.

• Growth in several large Southeast Asian economies disappointed in the first 9 months of 2014, prompting slight reductions to projections for Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Subregional growth is expected to reach 4.4% in 2014 and 5.2% in 2015.

• Economic malaise in the Russian Federation is crimping remittances and trade in Central Asia, even as falling oil prices hurt the subregion’s energy producers. Growth is now projected at 5.1% in 2014 and 5.4% in 2015, revised down by 0.5 percentage points for each year.

• Several governments have taken advantage of sharply lower global oil prices to rein in costly fuel subsidies, offsetting their mitigation of inflation. Still, inflation in developing Asia is expected to be somewhat lower than previously forecast, at 3.2% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015.

About the Asian Development Outlook

The Asian Development Outlook is ADB’s main economic forecasting product. It is published each April with an update published in September and brief supplements published in July and December.

Read the full ADB report here