Bonds, Currencies, Emerging Markets, Stocks

JPMorgan Cuts Economic Growth Forecast For 21 Of 22 Emerging Markets For 2016

Emerging MarketsTwenty-one of the largest 22 emerging market economies that are tracked by JPMorgan have had their economic growth forecasts cut in its 2016 consensus economic growth forecast.

Of the total 22 emerging market countries tracked by JPMorgan, the Czech Republic was the only exception, whose economic growth is forecasted to stay flat.

Widely acknowledged as troubled economies, Brazil, Greece, and South Africa have seen the largest downgrades over past quarter.

Brazil is estimated to see a 1.2 percent growth contraction in 2016, compared to the previously estimated 0.2 percent growth.

The Greek economy is expected to fall 1.2 percent, versus a previous forecast to remain flat.

South Africa is expected to see 1.6 percent growth, versus the previous forecast for 2.3 percent growth.

Growth in Russia is expected at zero, versus the previous estimate for 0.5 percent growth.

The Chinese and Indian economies are expected to slow by 0.2 percent to 6.5 and 7.4 percent, respectively, according to the report.

Lower assessments are partly due to declining expectations for economic growth in the developed world, which is likely to have a domino effect on emerging markets’ exports, according to David Aserkoff, equity strategist at JPMorgan.

Commodity importers such as India, Turkey, and South Korea have not seen an upgrade in their growth forecast, despite plummeting commodities prices.

“We are seeing some good news for emerging markets commodity importers, but a lot of the sovereigns are using this as an excuse to lower fuel subsidies, so the pass through to the consumer is not as good as most people think,” said Aserkoff.


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