Commodities, Emerging Markets, Energy, Frontier Markets

Even If Oil Should Fall To $40, UAE Energy Minister Sees No OPEC Cut

OPEC CountriesThe Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) believes that OPEC (The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) will continue to stand by its decision not to cut oil output, even if the price of oil should fall to as low as $40 per barrel.  In addition, OPEC will wait at least three months before even considering an emergency meeting, according to a Bloomberg report on Sunday.

Suhail Al-Mazrouei, the Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), said that OPEC won’t immediately change its November 27 decision to keep the cartel’s collective output target unchanged at 30 million barrels a day.

“We are not going to change our minds because the prices went to $60 or to $40,� Mazrouei told Bloomberg during a conference in Dubai. “We’re not targeting a price; the market will stabilize itself.�

According to Bloomberg, the UAE Energy Minister said that current conditions do not justify an emergency OPEC meeting.

“We need to wait for at least a quarter� to consider an urgent session, he said.

According to Bloomberg, OPEC’s 12 member nations pumped 30.56 million barrels a day in November, which exceeded their target for a sixth consecutive month.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait collectively deepened their discounts of shipments to Asia, thus feeding speculation that they’re fighting to gain market share amid a glut spurred by U.S. shale production.

OPEC nations supply around 40% of the world’s oil and since early summer, the price of oil has fallen off a cliff by over 40% as brent crude is currently at the lowest level since July 2009.

Emergency Meeting?

According to the UAE’s Energy Minister, the nation has not been advised on any plan for any such emergency meeting, Al-Mazrouei said, according to the Bloomberg report.

The Secretary General of OPEC, Abdalla El-Badri, said that “we don’t know� of any such meeting during the conference in Dubai, according to the Bloomberg report.

El-Badri said that an increase of around 6 million barrels per day from non-OPEC nations, combined with speculation in the oil markets, has thus triggered the recent plunge in prices.

Oil Rebound in H2 2015?

However, El-Badri said that he believed that prices would soon rebound due to changes in the global economic cycle, without giving details.

“We will not have a real picture about oil prices until the end of the first half of 2015,� El-Badri said.

El-Badri said that the price of oil will settle by the second half of 2015, and that OPEC will have a clearer vision at upon this time in regards to “the required measures� that would be needed.

Last month, OPEC kept its target unchanged as the group wasn’t sure if a of cut around 1 million to 1.5 million barrels a day would have boosted oil prices, El-Badri said.

El-Badri said that the cartel wasn’t looking to put pressure on the U.S. or Russia by maintaining output.

Moving Forward

“Our expectation in OPEC is that after 2020, the oil industry in the U.S. will decline� as the cartel sees reserves falling, El-Badri said.

El-Badri noted that the cartel did not see the U.S. becoming self-sufficient in oil and that the U.S. would continue to depend on Middle Eastern supply.

Source: Bloomberg

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