The prospect of a slowdown in China’s economy should have a negative impact of 0.3 percentage points over the Brazilian GDP between 2015 and 2016, according to a study of MCM Consultores, a Brazilian consultancy. According to the report, given the importance acquired by China in global demand, this process has immediate consequences for large commodity producers, for example, Brazil and Australia. China is expected to grow 7.0% in 2015 and 6.7% in 2016 and their projections shows that Brazilian GDP is going to be down by 3.1% in 2015 and a further decrease of 1.3% in 2016.
The study was conducted from a model that considers a number of variables, including, GDP of the two countries (Brazil and China), exchange rates, oil prices in dollar.
According to MCM, the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the Brazilian growth has been lower in recent years but continues to contribute negatively.
The weaker performance of China would have reduced the annual average change of the Brazilian GDP by 1.5 percentage points from 2003 to 2011. For next 4 years, China’s contribution would be negative in only 0.6,
added the report.
Regardless of this motion, Brazil’s economic performance over the past three and a half years remains weak due to the increased oolitical scandals (ie Petrobras),
says the study.
Ana Paula Picasso is a Brazilian born research analyst living in London. After working over four years as a research analyst with focus on Latin American consumer goods market working for one of the biggest market research companies in the world, Ana decided that it was time to pursue new challenges. So, in 2014 Ana became a freelance researcher and founded The Emerging Markets Hub as a platform for her passion for writing.